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Small Increases Expected for Renewable Electricity Generation

The Energy Information Administration reports that projections are mixed for renewables in central station grid-connected U.S. electricity supply. Federal and state incentives are projected to produce substantial near-term growth for some renewable energy technologies, but generally higher projected costs are a disadvantage for renewables relative to fossil-fueled technologies over the forecast period as a whole. Total U.S. grid-connected electricity generation from renewable energy sources is projected to increase from 389 billion kilowatt-hours in 1999 to 448 billion kwh in 2020, and generation from renewables other than hydroelectricity is projected to increase from 77 billion kwh to 146 billion kwh. Overall, renewables are projected to make up a smaller share of U.S. electricity generation, declining from 10.5 percent in 1999 to 8.5 percent in 2020.

Conventional hydroelectricity, which in 1999 provided 80 percent of the electricity supply from renewables, is projected to decline slightly in the forecast. The expected net addition of 600 megawatts of new hydropower capacity doesn't offset the projected decline in generation from existing hydroelectric facilities, as increasing environmental and other competing needs reduce their average productivity. Hydroelectric generation is projected to slip from 8.4 percent of the United States total in 1999 to 5.7 percent in 2020. The economic value of hydroelectric capacity is also likely to decline as environmental and other preferences shift generation to off-peak hours and seasons.