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Nuclear Efficiency Improving; Capacity Decrease Expected

The United States currently has 104 operable nuclear units, which provided 20 percent of total electricity generation in 1999. The performance of U.S. nuclear units has improved in recent years, to a national average capacity factor of 85 percent in 1999. It's assumed that performance improvements will continue, to an expected average capacity factor of 90 percent by 2015. In the reference case, 27 percent of current nuclear capacity is projected to be taken out of service by 2020, primarily as a result of operating license expirations. No new nuclear units are expected to become operable by 2020, because natural gas and coal-fired plants are projected to be more economical.

Nuclear units are projected to be retired when their operation is no longer economical relative to the cost of building replacement capacity. As a result, their operational lifetimes could be either shorter or longer than their current operating licenses. In the reference case, only one nuclear unit is projected to be retired before its current license expires, while 27 are projected to continue operating after their original 40-year licenses expire. In 2000, license renewals for two nuclear plants have been approved by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Three other applications are currently under review. As many as 17 other owners of nuclear power plants have announced intentions to apply for license renewals over the next five years, indicating a strong interest in maintaining the existing stock of nuclear plants. In addition, a nuclear industry task force has been developed to determine the key factors needed to prompt new orders of nuclear plants in the changing electricity market.